NBA postseason coaching tiers: What's at stake for Rivers, Ham, Mazzulla and more? (2024)

Coaches have legacies too, you know.

When the NBA postseason arrives, we tend to obsess over the star players and how they might help or hurt their reputations in the weeks and months ahead. As I’ve written before, the Ringz culture is real.

But serious pressure exists for the guys holding the whiteboard on the sideline, even if their bodies of work aren’t scrutinized like, say, that of LeBron James, Stephen Curry or James Harden. Maybe they should be, though.

The Milwaukee Bucks’ Doc Rivers has accomplished more than most coaches in the history of the game, including winning a title with the Boston Celtics in 2008, but has a long track record of falling short with teams that were considered title contenders in the 16 years since. And while Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf injury will lessen the heat of that spotlight on Rivers, the fact remains that he was brought to town in late January to be a game-changer from the bench when it mattered most. That time is still now.

Ditto for Frank Vogel, who won the (bubble) title with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020 and was brought to Phoenix last summer to help the star-studded Suns get to the promised land. Even with all the injuries endured by the Kevin Durant–Devin Booker–Bradley Beal-led squad, this has been an underwhelming debut for this group that played well in the second half of the season and could still salvage its super-team dreams with a deep playoff push.

It’s not a title-or-bust edict this time of year for most coaches. But Boston’s Joe Mazzulla, in just his second year on the job, will face a furious fan base if his Celtics don’t win the storied franchise’s 18th title and break the tie with the rival Lakers for the league lead.

New York’s Tom Thibodeau and Dallas’ Jason Kidd have done great work this season and are known to be looking for contract extensions this summer, but their cases will be much stronger if they avoid the kinds of postseason disappointments they’ve endured in the past. Veteran coaches such as Quin Snyder (Atlanta) and Billy Donovan (Chicago) are widely seen as some of the best in the business but haven’t found much playoff success in their previous stops. But if one of them could somehow imitate Miami’s Erik Spoelstra from a year ago, when he took the Heat to the NBA Finals by way of the Play-In path, that résumé would be forever enhanced. (Yes, I’m aware that would qualify as a minor miracle.)

For some coaches, such as the Lakers’ Darvin Ham and Cleveland’s J.B. Bickerstaff, there is a sense that exiting too early could put their jobs in peril. That’s the harsh truth that comes with falling short of expectations.

For all of the coaches who are hoping to land new contracts down the line, the postseason stakes are higher than ever — especially considering the recent spike in pay within their booming industry (sparked by the Detroit Pistons’ decision to give Monty Williams a six-year, $78.5 million deal in May).

With that in mind, this is how I see the crop of coaches that will be front and center this postseason. The chance to change one’s standing for the better awaits.

Tier 1: The Ring(z) holders

Erik Spoelstra (Miami Heat)

Previous years as head coach: 15 (Miami)
Years in the playoffs: 12 (.800 appearance rate)
Playoff series record: 23-10 (.696)

Top postseason achievement(s): Two NBA titles (2012, 2013); six East titles (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2020, 2023).
Worst postseason moment(s): After the Heat went 58-24 in the first season with James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, their six-game loss to Dallas in the 2011 Finals (after leading the series 2-1) was a seminal moment for all involved. LeBron bore the brunt of the criticism, but Spoelstra certainly played his part.

Contract: In January, Spoelstra agreed to an eight-year deal worth more than $100 million.

Analysis: First of all, eternal props to Pat Riley for supporting Spoelstra back in 2010 when LeBron signaled a desire to have him take over the coaching reins. As James explained recently on his “Mind the Game” podcast with JJ Redick, the struggles that came with their first season together sparked growth for their group and, ultimately, greatness.

Lebron on Spo and Bosh and the evolution of the Miami Heat offense. Full episode drops tomorrow. @mindthegamepod @KingJames pic.twitter.com/0gtNcTbHWK

— JJ Redick (@jj_redick) April 2, 2024

It’s been 14 years since then and a decade since James left to return to Cleveland, and Spoelstra has proven time and again that he’s among the elite. And just like last year, when his Heat went through Milwaukee, New York and Boston before facing the Denver Nuggets in the Finals, they’re the kind of eighth seed no team wants to see right now.

Steve Kerr (Golden State Warriors)

Previous years as head coach: 9 (Warriors)
Years in the playoffs: 7 (.777)
Playoff series record: 23-3 (.884)

Top postseason achievement(s): Four NBA titles (2015, 2017, 2018, 2022); six West titles (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022)
Worst postseason moment(s): The Warriors’ historic 3-1 collapse against Cleveland in the 2016 Finals.

Contract: Kerr signed a two-year, $35 million extension in February that runs through the 2025-26 season.

Analysis: As was the case with Kerr’s mentor, Phil Jackson, he will always be judged somewhat differently because of the extraordinary talent he had at his disposal. As Kerr would be the first to admit, it’s a great problem to have. And the incredible playoff record (see above) speaks for itself (not to mention his prestigious assignment as the U.S. men’s national basketball team coach).

But in the here and now, with his Warriors finally blending their celebrated (and aging) core with an improving group of youngsters, this postseason presents a unique opportunity for Kerr. Can he find a way to keep their momentum going from the second half of the season, when the Steph Curry-led group went 27-12 from Jan. 29 on and had the second-best record in the league in that span (fifth in net rating; seventh in offensive and defensive ratings)? With Klay Thompson set to enter free agency and questions looming about whether owner Joe Lacob wants to pay the massive freight to keep this group together, Kerr surely wants to make the most of what could finally be their last dance.

The first step? A do-or-die rematch Tuesday night in Sacramento, when the Warriors return to the same Golden 1 Center site where Curry’s 50-point masterpiece buried the Kings in Game 7 of last year’s first-round barnburner.

Michael Malone (Denver Nuggets)

Previous years as head coach: 10 (Sacramento, Denver)
Years in the playoffs: 5 (.500)
Playoff series record: 8-4 (.667)

Top postseason achievement(s): NBA title with Denver (2023); West finals appearance with Denver in 2020 (lost to Lakers in five games).
Worst postseason moment(s): The Nuggets’ second-round loss to Portland in 2019 was a heartbreaker, as they lost Game 7 on their home floor (100-96) despite holding Damian Lillard to 13 points (Portland’s CJ McCollum buried them with 37 points on 17-of-29 shooting). Denver (54-28) was the third seed that year, while Portland (53-29) was the fourth. If only the Nuggets had pulled off Game 4 of that series, when they fell short in an epic four-overtime affairin Portland.

Contract: Malone signed a two-year extension in November that takes his contract through the 2026-27 season.

Analysis: Malone might be the newest member of this Ring(z) group, but he earned the respect of his peers long before the Nuggets’ title run last year. He had the Kings heading in the right direction before his stunning firing in December 2014, then spent the next seven years in Denver doing a slow build alongside former front-office head Tim Connelly (now in Minnesota). Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray helped out a bit too.

So can Denver do it again and thereby fulfill Malone’s championship parade proclamation that the Nuggets would be “running this s— back”? It sure has looked like it these past seven months. Even with their stunning loss Friday at San Antonio that ultimately cost them the No. 1 seed, Denver finished the regular season with a better record than the 2022-23 campaign (57-25 vs. 53-29), had a better net rating (plus-5.5 vs. 3.3), better offensive rating (117.8 points scored per 100 possessions vs. 116.8) and better defensive rating (113.5 points allowed per 100 vs. 112.3). Jokić, who has played all nine of his NBA seasons under Malone, is the odds-on favorite to win what would be his third MVP.

Tyronn Lue (LA Clippers)

Previous years as head coach: 7 (Cavs, Clippers)
Years in the playoffs: 5 (.714)
Playoff series record: 12-4 (.750); 10-2 in Cleveland, 2-2 with Clippers

Top postseason achievement(s): NBA title (Cavs in 2016); three East titles (Cavs in 2016, 2017 and 2018).
Worst postseason moment(s): Finals losses to Golden State in 2017 and 2018 (they were heavy underdogs in both matchups, but fell short nonetheless).

Contract: The 2024-25 season on Lue’s current contract was initially not guaranteed but was later guaranteed by the organization in the wake of reported interest from Milwaukee and Phoenix.

Analysis: Take away the titles, and Lue’s Clippers have a lot in common with Kerr’s Warriors these days.

We know the franchise centerpiece isn’t going anywhere, as Kawhi Leonard signed a massive extension in January. We know the owner, in this case the Clippers’ Steve Ballmer, is maniacal about winning the whole thing and significant change might come if his team falls short (Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook can all be free agents this summer). Add in the fact that the Clippers’ new arena, the Intuit Dome, is set to open next season, and it makes these playoffs mighty compelling for Lue and company.

As our Clippers beat writer, Law Murray, discussed at length on a recent visit to my “Tampering” podcast, Lue’s Clippers future could be on the line here as well.

“Kawhi’s going to be in Intuit Dome, (but) I can’t tell you about anybody else if they don’t make it out the first round,” Murray said. “I think everybody is playing for their future in Intuit Dome.”

Regardless of what comes next, Lue is widely considered one of the top coaching minds in the game. The only question now is whether he can have a meeting of the minds with this inconsistent Clippers squad that has been so hard to figure outthis season.

The good news for Lue in the regular season was that he finally had a healthy team to coach — most of the time. There was far less load management with his Clippers, as George played in 74 games (his most since 2018-19 in Oklahoma City), Leonard played in 68 (his most since 2016-17 in San Antonio) and Harden played in 72 (his most since 2018-19 in Houston). The bad news at the moment is that Leonard’s status for the first-round matchup against Dallas remains unclear (he missed the final seven games of the regular season because of knee soreness).

This Mavericks matchup comes with an element of unfamiliarity, as these two teams have changed quite a bit since last facing each other on Dec. 20 (a 120-111 Clippers win in Dallas). Yet while the Mavericks have been scorching hot in these past few months, the Clippers were just 17-16 after Feb. 6 (after starting 34-15).

Nick Nurse (Philadelphia 76ers)

Previous years as head coach: 5 (Raptors)
Years in the playoffs: 3
Playoff series record: 5-2 (.714)

Top postseason achievement(s): NBA title (Toronto in 2019).
Worst postseason moment(s): Falling to Boston in Game 7 of the 2020 second round (92-87) in the bubble. Those Raptors had already survived so much in their title defense campaign, finishing second in the East (53-19) despite Leonard having left for the Clippers in free agency the offseason before. They battled back from an 0-2 hole against the Celtics in that series, with Fred VanVleet declaring that Boston had “f—– up now” after Toronto started clawing its way back with a Game 3 win (including that unforgettable Kyle Lowry inbounds pass and the OG Anunoby game winner from the left corner). They forced Game 7 with a double-overtime thriller in Game 6, but fell in the finale when their offense failed them at the worst possible time.

Contract: Nurse signed with the Sixers in late May 2023, replacing Doc Rivers (now in Milwaukee).

Analysis: Nurse has a chance to play the part of postseason spoiler in these next few weeks — if not months. His Sixers are at full health again with reigning MVP Joel Embiid back from the meniscus injury that cost him 29 games, and they won all five games in which he played since his April 2 return (with Embiid averaging 30.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.2 blocks in that span). Combined with what they did before his injury, they were 30-8 with him on the floor this season. That .789 winning percentage, by the way, is better than Boston’s mark of .780 that gave the Celtics a seven-game lead on the rest of the league.

But Embiid missed two late-season games as part of the injury management for his left knee, including the regular-season finale against Brooklyn on Sunday (a 107-86 Philly win). Starting on Wednesday night, when Philadelphia hosts the Heat with a first-round matchup against the Knicks on the line, Embiid’s ability to be at his best will be everything, as always, for the Sixers.

Rick Carlisle (Indiana Pacers)

Previous years as head coach: 21 (Pistons, Pacers, Mavericks, Pacers)
Years in the playoffs: 14 (.667)
Playoff series record: 11-13 (.458; 3-2 in Detroit, 3-3 in Indiana, 5-8 in Dallas)

Top postseason achievement(s): NBA title (Dallas in 2011)
Worst postseason moment(s): Carlisle has fallen in the first round eight of the 14 times he’s been in the playoffs, with seven of those times coming during his 13-year run with the Mavericks (2008-21).

Contract: While Carlisle reportedly signed a four-year deal worth approximately $29 million combined in June 2021 (taking him through the 2024-25 season), the Pacers gave him a multi-year extension in October.

Analysis: Is it fair to expect more than another first-round flameout from Carlisle in these playoffs? I say yes, especially in this watered-down East where Boston (which the sixth-place Pacers avoided in the first round) is the only dominant team and the Pacers are taking on their favorite archnemesis (Milwaukee) in the first round. The Pacers showed an ability to beat the Bucks even when they had Giannis (4-1, including their testy In-Season Tournament semifinal). So while the Bucks don’t yet know if he’ll be available because of a calf strain, there’s plenty of reason to believe Indiana can pull this off. After all, this playoff stage is the very reason that the Pacers did the Pascal Siakam deal with Toronto in mid-January.

But Indiana has gone just 23-18 since, with Siakam averaging 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists. Tyrese Haliburton’s hamstring injury was a major reason for the mediocrity, and he struggled mightily after his Jan. 30 return. Indiana managed to go 13-7 down the stretch, with Haliburton averaging 18.5 points, 9.8 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals in that span. If they can rediscover that entertaining style they used to get to the In-Season Tournament title game while blending Siakam and Haliburton like never before, the prospect of Carlisle’s Pacers making a run isn’t outside the realm of possibility.

Frank Vogel (Phoenix Suns)

Previous years as head coach: 11 (Pacers, Lakers)
Years in the playoffs: 7 (.636)
Playoff series record: 9-6 (.600; 5-5 in Indiana, 4-1 with Lakers)

Top postseason achievement(s): NBA title (Lakers 2020); two East finals appearances (his Pacers lost to Miami in 2013 and 2014).
Worst postseason moment(s): The Pacers’ anticlimactic Game 7 loss to the James-Wade-Bosh Heat in the 2013 East finals, when they were dominated (99-76) in Miami after playing so well in Game 6 (a 91-77 win). It was their best chance to take down the Heatles, and they couldn’t have played much worse.

Contract: Vogel signed a five-year, $31 million deal in early June 2023.

Analysis: It’s not Vogel’s fault that the Suns’ roster is unbalanced because of the massive money paid to their star trio that was put together by Suns owner Mat Ishbia, or that the newcomer in that group, Beal, missed 29 games because of injuries. Still, the time for excuses — valid though they might be — is behind them now.

Every team has its issues, but this particular team has the kinds that simply aren’t easily fixable given the current economic makeup of the roster. Booker’s max deal takes him through the 2027-28 season (topping out at a projected $61.6 million), while Beal’s deal goes through 2026-27 (player option worth $57.1 million in that final season) and Durant’s deal ends in 2025-26 (at $54.7 million).

As such, this may be their last, best chance at somehow pulling it together before the messiness that awaits on the other side. Even with some puzzling losses in the closing weeks, Phoenix had the fourth-best winning percentage in the league after Dec. 26 (.660; 35-18). The Suns have had the league’s 10th-best defensive rating in that span — a major uptick from earlier in the season and much more in line with Vogel’s identity.

As Booker told me in mid-January, when the Suns were on the eve of a seven-game winning streak, “I don’t want to be the guy to say, ‘Oh, wait until the playoffs…’ But there are some high-level performers in here, and we always know in any series that we’re matched up with somebody that we can give them our best shot. We’ll be in good shape.”

As for the first-round matchup against Minnesota, the regular-season evidence bodes very well for these Suns. Not only were they 3-0 against the Timberwolves, but also their offensive rating in those games (123.7) was far greater than their season-long mark (116.8). For context, Boston led the league with a mark of 122.2. Considering the Timberwolves’ breakout season was built on their league-leading defense, and that center Rudy Gobert (and Anthony Edwards) played in all three of those games, Phoenix should feel just fine about this matchup.

Doc Rivers (Milwaukee Bucks)

Previous years as head coach: 24 (Magic, Celtics, Clippers, Sixers)
Years in the playoffs: 19 (.791)
Playoff series record: 17-18 (.485 winning percentage; 0-3 in Orlando, 11-7 in Boston, 3-6 with the Clippers, 3-3 with the Sixers)

Top postseason achievement(s): NBA title (Celtics 2008); two East titles (Celtics in 2008 and 2010).
Worst postseason moment(s): You already know what goes in this section: Rivers’ penchant for blowing 3-1 series leads (three in all; once in Orlando, twice with the Clippers). While he has pushed back on the years-long criticism on this front, rightfully pointing out that the context of each team’s situation should be considered, it doesn’t change the reality that many of his teams have let up when it matters most. It’s a blotch on his résumé, no matter how you slice it. Rivers’ teams have lost 3-2 series leads four times (Orlando once, Boston twice and once in Philly) and one 2-0 series lead (Clippers).

And then there are the Game 7 losses. Rivershas more Game 7 defeats than any other coach in NBA history (10) but also has taken part in the most (16, with Pat Riley second at 11). Late Celtics legend Red Auerbach has the all-time record for Game 7 wins (eight, with no losses, which is simply remarkable).

Contract: Rivers, who replaced the fired Adrian Griffin in late January, signed a deal that runs through the 2026-27 season and is worth approximately $40 million.

Analysis: The Doc discussion has been a prickly one this season, mostly because of Redick’s mid-February rant about his former Clippers coach on ESPN. But his career was tricky to analyze long before then, as he has a mixture of historic success (eighth all-time in regular season wins) and postseason struggles that is up there with the likes of Don Nelson, Lenny Wilkens, Jerry Sloan and George Karl (who are second, third, fourth and sixth in wins, respectively, yet have one title and five conference championships between them). Among the top eight coaches in all-time playoffs wins, Rivers (who is fourth, with a record of 111-104) and Larry Brown are the only ones with fewer than two titles.Lately, though, it’s the regular season that is giving Rivers fits.

Milwaukee has gone just 17-19 since Rivers took over for Griffin, with the Bucks’ blowout loss to Orlando in the regular-season finale quite apropos. The Bucks have the league’s 17th-best net rating in that span, the 15th-best defensive rating and the 18th-best offensive rating.

By comparison, the Bucks were 30-13 under Griffin in his first year as a head coach (10th in net rating, 22nd in defensive rating and second in offensive rating). It has been nothing short of brutal so far in Rivers’ short time in Milwaukee, and only made worse by the Antetokounmpo injury on April 9 that cost him the final three games — and perhaps even more.

As for the postseason to come and this compelling first-round matchup against a Pacers team that caused them fits so many times this season, the optics of the Bucks getting bounced in the first round would be bad even if they don’t have Antetokounmpo. Rivers told reporters on Sunday that it remains unclear when Antetokounmpo will be cleared to return but indicated that he’d been “getting great reports” about his progress.

Tier 2: The best of the rest

Tom Thibodeau (New York Knicks)

Previous years as head coach: 11 (Bulls, Timberwolves, Knicks)
Years in the playoffs: 8 (.727)
Playoff series record: 5-8 (.384; 4-5 in Chicago, 0-1 in Minnesota, 1-2 in New York)

Top postseason achievement(s): Thibodeau’s Timberwolves tenure might have flamed out in spectacular fashion in January 2019, but his ability to get Minnesota to the playoffs in 2018 was still a major accomplishment. The Wolves, who lost to Houston in five games in that series, hadn’t been there since the Kevin Garnett days back in 2004. Getting the Knicks to the playoffs in 2021 had a similar feel (they hadn’t been since 2013).
Worst postseason moment(s): It might be harsh to deem Thibodeau’s longest playoff run a failure, but that’s the reality of his 2010-11 Bulls team that featured MVP Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. They had the league’s best record that season (62-20), then made relatively quick work of Indiana (five games) and Atlanta (six games) in the first two rounds. The Heatles handled them in the East finals, though, winning in five games.

Contract: Thibodeau’s deal expires after the 2024-25 season. As I reported recently, Thibodeau is hoping to secure an extension this summer.

Analysis: If only Thibodeau’s Knicks were fully healthy, the discussion here would center on his need to make the most of this playoff moment and make a deep run. But the loss of big man Julius Randle to season-ending shoulder surgery is a game-changer in terms of their ceiling, as New York should now be viewed as a dangerous team that falls short of contender status. That being said, it’s a major boon for the Knicks to have OG Anunoby back in the fold again after his elbow injury cost him 27 games. New York was 20-3 — no, that’s not a typo — when he played this season. In terms of their first-round matchup, the Knicks await the winner of the Heat-Sixers Play-In game on Wednesday night.

Mike Brown (Sacramento Kings)

Previous years as head coach: 9 (Cleveland, Lakers, Sacramento)
Years in the playoffs: 7 (.778)
Playoff series record: 9-7 (.563; 8-5 in Cleveland, 1-1 with Lakers, 0-1 with Kings)

Top postseason achievement(s): Eastern Conference title in 2007 (the Cavs lost to San Antonio in four games in the Finals); getting the Kings to the playoffs in 2023, breaking the franchise’s 16-year long postseason drought.
Worst postseason moment(s): Cleveland’s Eastern Conference finals loss to Orlando in 2009. The Cavs, having gone a league-best 66-16 in the regular season, fell to the Magic in six games. Cleveland’s East semifinals loss to Boston in 2010 in six games is a close second, if only because it led to Brown’s firing and the departure of James to Miami in free agency that summer.

Contract: Brown signed a four-year dealwith the Kings in May 2022, but league sources say the deal has a mutual option for the 2025-26 season.

Analysis: If only the rest of the West hadn’t improved so much, Brown’s Kings would be getting rave reviews for this continued push into NBA relevance. Yet after their Cinderella season a year ago, when they lifted that dark cloud above the long-suffering franchise by finishing third with a record of 48-34 before falling to Golden State in the first round, this finish (46-36) is only good for ninth. By comparison, Phoenix had the fourth seed last season with a record of 45-37.

But none of that matters now. Brown and his Jekyll-and-Hyde Kingsare up against it, with no Malik Monk (MCL) or Kevin Huerter (shoulder surgery) to help. Sacramento’s awful slide at season’s end (seven losses in their last 11) put the team in this position. And Brown, who was the NBA’s first unanimous Coach of the Year in 2022-23, will have to somehow find a way to make it all work, starting with the Play-In game against his old Warriors team on Tuesday night. Brown, of course, worked with Kerr as a lead assistant with Golden State from 2016 to 2022.

Quin Snyder (Atlanta Hawks)

Previous years as head coach: 9 (Utah and Atlanta)
Years in the playoffs: 7 (.777)
Playoff series record: 3-7 (.300); 3-6 in Utah, 0-1 in Atlanta

Top postseason achievement(s): West semifinal appearances with the Jazz in 2017, 2018 and 2021.
Worst postseason moment(s): In case you wondered, a coach can have his best and worst postseason moments intersect. While I mentioned Snyder getting the Jazz to the second round in 2021 as an accomplishment, their six-game loss to the Clippers once they got there was a major letdown for a team that had the best record in the league during that COVID-shortened season (52-20).

Contract: Snyder signed a five-year deal in late February that is believed to be worth approximately $8 million annually.

Analysis: The questions that matter most about the Hawks will have to be answered in the offseason. Chief among them: Might they finally trade Dejounte Murray or Trae Young?

As currently constructed, Atlanta doesn’t look capable of doing real damage in the playoffs (or the Play-In, for that matter, where they’ll play Wednesday night at Chicago). Getting Young back recently is certainly a good thing, as he returned from the finger injury that cost him nearly two months. But rising star Jalen Johnson is out for at least three weeks with a Grade 2 ankle sprain, and big man Onyeka Okongwu is done for at least four weeks because of a toe injury (and procedure). You get the idea.

So no, in other words, Snyder isn’t working with a full deck here. It’s too bad, really, as Atlanta had played better of late. The Hawks went 18-13 from Jan. 28 to April 3 and even beat Boston twice late last month.

Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls)

Previous years as head coach: 8 (Oklahoma City and Chicago)
Years in the playoffs: 6 (.750)
Playoff series record: 2-6

Top postseason achievement(s): In Donovan’s first season in Oklahoma City (2015-16), his Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook-led Thunder downed Dallas and San Antonio in the first two rounds and nearly toppled the dynasty Warriors in the West finals. Their Game 7 loss at Oracle Arena, if you somehow hadn’t heard, led to Durant’s choice to join the Warriors as a free agent the following summer.
Worst postseason moment(s): The bar was lowered in OKC after Durant’s departure, and with good reason. But the 2018-19 Thunder went 49-33 in the regular season and entered the playoffs as the sixth seed, only to fall to Portland (53-29; third seed) in five games in the first round. Donovan’s teams have lost in the first round in his last five trips to the playoffs.

Contract: Donovan originally signed a deal that ran through the 2023-24 season but was given a multi-year extension before the 2022-23 season.

Analysis: The Bulls’ problems go much deeper than X’s and O’s, meaning it’s hard to assess Donovan’s role in their latest subpar season. The fact of the matter is that the roster itself, which most agree should have been reshuffled at the trade deadline, is mediocre in every way. Should they survive the Play-In Tournament, it’s safe to say the Celtics won’t be worried about a first-round upset. Either way, the looming free agency of DeMar DeRozan and the always-uncertain future of Zach LaVine will be front and center from there.

Tier 3: The unprovens

Mark Daigneault (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Previous years as head coach: 3 (OKC)
Years in the playoffs: 0 (.000)
Playoff series record: N/A

Top postseason achievement(s): N/A
Worst postseason moment(s): N/A

Contract: Daigneault, who was hired as the Thunder’s head coach in November 2020, was given a multi-year extension in July.

Analysis: Daigneault, who worked with Donovan at Florida and came up through the Thunder’s G League team, remains anonymous to most casual hoops fans. But the 39-year-old is off to an eye-opening start in his NBA coaching career.

He took OKC from 24 wins in the 2021-22 season to 40 last season and placed second in Coach of the Year voting behind Brown. He should win it this time around, as the young Thunder vaulted to the top of the West in the kind of way that tends to lead to acclaim and elevates expectations. The next few days will be a nightmare for their scouting department, as they could face the Pelicans, Lakers, Kings or Warriors in the first round, and surely started preparing for each team on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Finch (Minnesota Timberwolves)

Previous years as head coach: 3 (Minnesota)
Years in the playoffs: 2 (.667)
Playoff series record: 0-2 (.000)

Top postseason achievement(s): N/A
Worst postseason moment(s): First-round losses to Memphis (six games) and Denver (five) in his first two seasons.

Contract: Finch signed a multi-year extension in April 2022, with league sources telling The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski that the coach has two seasons remaining on the deal and a third (2026-27) that is a team option. He was originally hired to replace Ryan Saunders in February 2021.

Analysis: It’s one thing to fall in the first round when you’re a heavy underdog, and the Wolves were just that in Finch’s first two seasons (seventh and eighth in the West, respectively). But this go-round will be much different, with Minnesota looking like a legitimate title contender.

With Karl-Anthony Towns back from his meniscus injury and the Anthony Edwards-Rudy Gobert-Naz Reid trio playing at such a high level during his five-week absence, Finch needs to find a way to inspire a serious postseason push. He looks plenty capable, too, what with the way he has flipped this team’s script from last season. The Gobert trade that was roundly ridiculed when it went down in July 2022 is now the foundation of their success, with Minnesota boasting the league’s top-ranked defense, and Edwards’ commitment to two-way play a pivotal part of his star turn. And as our readers in the comments section are always eager to remind you … don’t forget about Naz Reid. Or, for that matter, Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley.

As I mentioned above, though, this Suns matchup will be tough. Minnesota’s regular-season finale against Phoenix was proof positive of that much as the Timberwolves gave up more points (125) in the loss than they had in regulation to any team since Jan. 22 (a 128-125 loss to Charlotte). That league-leading defense is about to get a serious test.

Willie Green (New Orleans Pelicans)

Previous years as head coach: 2 (New Orleans)
Years in the playoffs: 1 (.500)
Playoff series record: 0-1 (.000)

Top postseason achievement(s): N/A
Worst postseason moment(s): First-round loss to Phoenix (six games) in 2022.

Contract: While Green was hired in July 2021, league sources say Green has multiple years remaining on an extension that had not been previously reported.

Analysis: The contract revelation above tells you all you need to know about Green’s standing in New Orleans, as he remains the organization’s choice to lead this talented Pelicans group that has so much promise. In terms of the bigger picture, it matters a great deal that there has been progress for a third consecutive season — from 36 wins in his rookie head coaching campaign to 42 to 49 this season. Still, this postseason is pivotal when it comes to the Pelicans knowing what to make of this pricey core. Green’s ability to get the best out of this group that shows flashes of brilliance is vital.

Zion Williamson’s second-half surge is the most important development, with the 23-year-old playing the best basketball of his underwhelming (and injury-riddled) career these past few months. He’s signed through the 2027-28 season, when his salary tops out at $44.8 million. Yet as our Mike Vorkunov reported in December, the deal is no longer guaranteed for the final three seasons because of Williamson’s inability to meet a condition of the contract last season relating to games played (he missed 53 in all).

CJ McCollum is signed through 2025-26 ($30.6 million that season). The next key negotiation involves Brandon Ingram, whose deal expires after next season ($36 million) and who plans on discussing an extension with New Orleans this summer. If the Pels can survive the Play-In, which starts with them hosting the Lakers on Tuesday night, winning a playoff series or two would go a long way toward crystallizing this pricey plan.

Jamahl Mosley (Orlando Magic)

Previous years as head coach: 2 (Magic)
Years in the playoffs: 0 (.000)
Playoff series record: N/A

Top postseason achievement(s): N/A
Worst postseason moment(s): N/A

Contract: Mosley signed a four-year extension in March, reportedly taking his deal through the 2027-28 season.

Analysis: Mosley, who came Orlando’s way in July 2021 after spending the previous seven years as a Mavericks assistant, has a chance to build something special here. It has been nearly 14 years since the Magic won a playoff series, back in those Stan Van Gundy days when Dwight Howard was their everything and they fell to Boston in the 2010 East finals.

By regular-season standards, this Paolo Banchero/Franz Wagner-led group (47-35; fifth in the East) was better than any Magic squad since 2010-11 (when they went 52-30 and lost in the first round). They finished third in defensive rating, with Jalen Suggs and Banchero the anchors on that end, and are widely known to be looking to upgrade the offense when the summer rolls around (Klay Thompson and Malik Monk are believed to be targets). Orlando could have as much as $60 million in salary-cap space this offseason, and the prospect of the Magic showing out in the playoffs could only help with the recruitment process.

As first-round matchups go, getting a Cleveland team that lost 18 of its last 31 games this season is as good as it gets for a 4-5 series. The two teams split the season series 2-2 but haven’t played since Feb. 22 (a 116-109 Magic win in Cleveland).

Tier 4: The pressure’s on

Joe Mazzulla (Boston Celtics)

Previous years as head coach: 1 (Celtics)
Years in the playoffs: 1 (1.000)
Playoff series record: 2-1 (.667)

Top postseason achievement(s): East finals appearance with Boston last season (lost to Miami in seven games).
Worst postseason moment(s): If you missed the disclaimer above, it is possible to have the same playoff experience qualify as good and bad. To that end, the Celtics’ loss to the Heat in the East finals a year ago was a massive missed opportunity. It would have been one thing if they fell to a fellow East juggernaut, but Miami was eighth in the East last season and even lost a Play-In game (to Atlanta) before pulling off its improbable run to the Finals.

Contract: Per our Shams Charania, Mazzulla is signed through the 2025-26 season and has a combined $14 million coming his way during that span of his deal.

Analysis: When Mazzulla took this Celtics job in the wake of the Ime Udoka controversy in September 2023, nothing had changed about the organization’s championship ethos. But Mazzulla’s transition was extraordinarily challenging, as he had gone from being a behind-the-bench assistant to the head job without the luxury of preparing for his debut campaign during the offseason. As such, it surprised no one in league circles that those Celtics fell short of their ultimate goal.

Things are different now.

These Celtics (64-18) finished with a 14-game lead on second-place New York in the East, with a winning percentage of .780 that was better than 14 of the organization’s 17 title teams.

Translation: Anything short of a title will be seen as a massive failure.

Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks)

Previous years as head coach: 7 (Nets, Bucks, Mavericks)
Years in the playoffs: 4 (.571)
Playoff series record: 3-4 (.428; 1-1 in Brooklyn, 0-2 in Milwaukee, 2-1 in Dallas)

Top postseason achievement(s): In his first season in Dallas (2021-22), Kidd’s Mavericks downed Utah (six games) and Phoenix (seven games) to reach the West finals. They lost to Golden State in five games.
Worst postseason moment(s): The aforementioned West finals loss in 2022, in which the Mavs’ four losses came by an average of 13.3 points.

Contract: Kidd signed a four-year deal when he was hired in 2021, taking his deal through the 2024-25 campaign.

Analysis: So long as the good times keep coming with this Luka Dončić–Kyrie Irving Mavs team that has been one of the best in basketball since March 7, then Kidd should be in position to reap the well-deserved rewards. As I wrote recently, he’s hopeful that an extension awaits this summer.

But there’s another side to that coin too. The Mavericks are under new ownership now, with Mark Cuban having sold his majority stake to the families who run the Las Vegas Sands corporation. And while Cuban still has a minority share and remains very involved on the basketball side, he’s no longer the final decision-maker.

For Kidd’s purposes, that increases the need for a strong postseason showing. With Dončić playing at an MVP level, Irving both available and elite (again) and a roster that was shored up by general manager Nico Harrison at the February trade deadline, Kidd faces some pressure here. The last thing he wants to do is bow out early to the Clippers and make the new owners think twice about the notion of locking him up for the long term.

J.B. Bickerstaff (Cleveland Cavaliers)

Previous years as head coach: 7 (Rockets, Cavs)
Years in the playoffs: 2 (.285)
Playoff series record: 0-2 (.000); 0-1 in Houston, 0-1 in Cleveland.

Top postseason achievement(s): First-round appearance with Houston (lost to Golden State in five games in 2016).
Worst postseason moment(s): Bickerstaff’s Cavs, in their first season with Donovan Mitchell after the September 2022 blockbuster trade with Utah, fell in five games to the Knicks in the first round last April. After finishing fourth in the East (51-31) and securing home-court advantage for that series, it was a letdown.

Contract: Bickerstaff signed an extension in December 2021 that reportedly takes himthrough the 2026-27 season.

Analysis: It has been a roller-coaster existence for Bickerstaff in Cleveland this season. The hot-seat chatter around him picked up during Cleveland’s sluggish start, then dissipated when the mid-December injuries to Evan Mobley (left knee) and Darius Garland (broken jaw) changed the internal calculus — if only temporarily.

The scrutiny (from all sides) is back in full force now, with the Cavs going just 13-18 from Feb. 12 until their regular-season finale loss to lowly Charlotte on Sunday that put them on Boston’s side of the East bracket (they have Orlando, and home court, in the first round). From here on out, Bickerstaff is in desperate need of a turnaround because of the bigger picture that’s in play. Mitchell is extension eligible this summer, and the widely held belief around the league has been that Cleveland will have to strongly consider trading him if he opts against doing that deal and plans on being a free agent in the summer of 2025.

Darvin Ham (Los Angeles Lakers)

Previous years as head coach: 1 (Lakers)
Years in the playoffs: 1 (1.000)
Playoff series record: 2-1 (.667)

Top postseason achievement(s): West finals appearance with the Lakers in 2023 (lost to Denver in four games)
Worst postseason moment(s): N/A (No, getting swept by the eventual champs in the West finals when you entered the playoffs as a Play-In team doesn’t count).

Contract: Ham signed a four-year deal in late May 2022, taking his deal through the 2025-26 season.

Analysis: For a few days in early January, it looked like Ham might be fired midway through his second season. A significant portion of the locker room was known to be unhappy with the state of affairs on that front, so the predictable (and fair) questions began about what it would all mean.

But then, as is often the case when it comes to pro sports, we were reminded that the owner’s voice matters above all else. Lakers owner Jeanie Buss is a known proponent of Ham and even sent him a long text messageof support in the wake of the initial report about his situation. And so, in essence, they all moved on.

Four months later, with the Lakers having recovered from their 17-19 start to win 30 of 46 games since then, one would think Ham would be out of harm’s way. Butthe best way for Ham to avoid being the fall guy here is to lead the Lakers on the kind of run they pulled off last time around. Their latest Play-In journey starts Tuesday night in New Orleans, where the Lakers face the Pelicans team they beat three out of four times this season (including 124-108 in the regular-season finale on Sunday that played a pivotal part in the seventh-through-10th standings).

Yet regardless of how this latest Lakers postseason ends, the future of LeBron James in Laker Land will loom large over all of their offseason business — Ham included. The 39-year-old has a player option for next season worth $51.4 million, but it appears far more likely that he’ll opt out and pursue the three-year, $162 million deal that the Lakers would be able to give him.

The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski contributed.

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(Illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic; top photos of Doc Rivers, Joe Mazzulla and Tyronn Lue: Scott Cunningham, Tim Heitman / Getty Images)